American democracy's chance of survival - Distinguishing factors, Part 2a

Hi all,

Since my last post, there have been a few relevant developments. Well, there have been a ton of developments, as Trump's vengeance tour against... *checks notes*... the entirety of the United States continues apace. However, some of these developments are particularly relevant to last week's post.

First, there have been several additional significant court rulings repeatedly affirming that, no, the administration cannot just arrest and deport whomever they want to a foreign prison without due process. This continues to give reason for cautious optimism for the fate of American democracy. On the other hand, Kilmar Abrego Garcia is still not home. And, the FBI's arrest of a Wisconsin judge on the courthouse steps last week, for purportedly helping an immigrant evade arrest, is a particularly troubling escalation. Then there's the White House press secretary's none-too-subtle refusal to rule out arresting a Supreme Court justice. As well as Rubio's snarky quip to a journalist who asked if the administration has made a formal request to El Salvador about the return of Garcia, “Well, I’ll never tell you that. And you know who else I’ll never tell? A judge.” So, yeah... it appears we are continuing to inch down the path that ends with a direct showdown between the executive and judicial branches.

Second, last week's post also discussed how, in order to crackdown effectively on protests nationwide and in short order, Trump would need the participation of hundreds if not thousands of local law enforcement agencies and court systems. Well, this past Monday evening he released an executive order designed to “unleash high-impact local police forces; protect and defend law enforcement officers wrongly accused and abused by State or local officials; and surge resources to officers in need.” In other words, this EO is the administration's attempt to empower local police forces to act as his goons.

This is just the latest in the stream of EO's Trump has signed for the camera, with the zeal of a 4-year old so proud they finally learned to write their name, and most with about the same amount of legal heft. However, as we've also repeatedly seen, this does not prevent the targeted organizations and individuals from bending the knee in advance to comply.

In this case, local law enforcement's latitude to carry out Trump's orders is clearly constrained by law. Meaning that, should police openly flout the constitutional protections afforded to citizens–particularly if it involves the use of violence–they could face legal consequences. To this end, Trump's EO also made sure to specify that some portion of the promised $1 billion dollars in pro-bono legal work extracted from five top-grovel firms (whom I am happy to report House Democrats on the Oversight Committee are pushing back on) will be allocated to defend police who heed his call.

Much like telling his rally-goers that he will pay their legal bills if they punch someone in the face and releasing the J6 insurrectionists from prison, Trump is very intentionally sending the message loud and clear to police officers that, if they commit violence on his behalf, he will protect them. This is a troubling, albeit, not surprising escalation. As previously discussed, Trump's threats of violence have always been a cornerstone of his political power. And, as Trump's polling numbers continue to plummet, protestors increasingly take to the streets, and the court losses continue to pile up, his ability to wield the threat (and use) of violence will be essential to maintaining power. How this all plays out will, in part, be determined by how many local and federal enforcement agencies, and even military branches (if he ever does successfully invoke the Insurrectionist Act, as some observers worry), sign on to spill American blood in the streets in the name of the Trump regime.

I do hope this latest escalation is actually a sign of desperation. Maybe the administration sees the writing on the wall, and this is their Hail Mary pass to hold onto power? But even (especially) the weak and desperate are capable of unleashing great cruelty before they're out of runway.

Turning to today's post, I had intended to discuss two additional related ways that the current assault on American democracy may differ from the other 95 cases of fascist attacks on democracies. However, after adding the update above, this post started to feel a bit long. So, I am breaking the discussion into two. Today's post puts Musk and his motives under the microscope, which includes a very needed dose of schadenfreude for us all. Tomorrow, I'll send out a second post exploring how the increasingly illiberal tech oligarchy has helped push this country to the brink.

Musk

Although I am admittedly not an expert on the other 95 cases of autocratic assaults on democracies identified in the comparative study discussed in previous posts, the role of Elon Musk is arguably unprecedented. I find it difficult to believe that any of these other cases included the world’s purportedly richest person, with a very evident substance addiction, who so publicly and brazenly bought an election and then immediately installed themselves into such an influential and visible made-up position in the administration. Add to this that Musk is deeply unpopular among the American public. And, importantly, increasingly revealing himself to be an incompetent grifter.

Yes, his wealth and reputation (both of which he is shredding at an impressive rate) bestow him with a unique type of access and capacity to carry out the destruction of America’s democratic and governmental institutions. However, Musk’s involvement also invites additional points of vulnerability. The most obvious being what happens as Trump’s and Musk’s massive but very fragile egos, bottomless need for attention and adulation, and obsession with domination increasingly bump up against each other. It is not a recipe for a lifelong friendship nor even partnership, let alone all of the opportunities for castle subterfuge this dynamic incentivizes.

But, a second and perhaps even more consequential vulnerability is the massive over-valuation of Musk’s companies, which much of his purported wealth is derived from. There are only so many years that he can continue to make promises about a self-driving car that is never going to materialize (at least, not the fully realized self-driving software he has been promising). There are only so many years that he can continue to cook the books to obscure his company’s profitability problems, and suppress evidence of the subpar products his companies produce—whether it be glued together cars or space rockets that explode or the Nazi graveyard he turned Xwitter into—before there is a correction to this overvaluation. At which point he would potentially cease to be the wealthiest man in the world. 

In order to prevent that day from coming, Musk NEEDS the wholesale destruction of our government. This enables him to continue to award himself lucrative government contracts that may otherwise dry up. It also allows him to dismantle the regulatory agencies that were investigating the myriad issues with his companies, which might otherwise have precipitated a market correction to his companies’ overvaluation. And, cherry on top, he can also benefit from grinding these government agencies and the services they provide into dust, and then offer inferior yet more costly privatized versions of these same services to the public.   

Here is a helpful read about how the impending burst of the Musk bubble may be a primary motivator for the wanton destruction wrought by DOGE at his command, and here is an amusing video about just how fragile Musk’s wealth is.  

Returning to what this might mean for how the current attack on America’s democracy plays out, although this may be a root cause of Musk’s dismantling of our governmental institutions, it is also a point of vulnerability. In recent months, there have been a growing number of #TeslaTakedown protests, which don’t appear to be abating soon. Since January, Tesla shares have plunged more by than 40%, costing Musk himself $121 billion. Tesla sales are also continuing to plummet globally, with a recent report revealing a 49% drop in European sales and Tesla's Q1 2025 net earnings down a whopping 71%. Between the increased competition from other EV’s and the degree to which owning a Tesla has been tainted by Musk’s likely-irreversible unlikability, sales are unlikely to rebound. 

Between nearly crying when asked about this on a Fox News interview, and his statement earlier this week that he is stepping away from the White House to focus on his businesses, it appears this is all getting to be too much for Musk. (Of note, just yesterday WSJ reported that the Tesla board had started the process of looking for a new CEO to replace Musk, which they have since denied.) I have no doubt that, even if he is less visible (which, with his ego, I have a hard time imagining), Musk will still be endeavoring to pull whatever strings he can, which the current plan for his DOGE team to stay in place will help facilitate. This suggests that there is good reason to believe that the castle subterfuge will continue, further deepening the growing fissures within the administration. This also means that DOGE's illegal and incompetent dismantling of our government agencies will also continue, further tanking Trump's approval ratings, as well as opening the administration up to even more legal challenges (which the DOJ is already seemingly buckling under the pressure of).

For the moment, it appears Musk has managed to step away before Trump inevitably threw him under the bus. Although remarkable, my guess is this reprieve is illusory. No one within Trump's close orbit has not, eventually, been screwed over by him. And, there's little reason–aside from his somewhat less deep pockets–to believe Musk will fare any differently. What we also know is that Musk's shambolic response to any challenge he encounters is to increasingly flail about blindly and without any underlying strategy, which most often ends up with him just making things worse for himself and his businesses. So, however this plays out, it's going to be a lot of fun to watch. And, bring your popcorn–there's no telling what dirty laundry will get aired.